Amidst the ongoing U.S. presidential election, the eyes of Taiwan are fixed on the potential implications that American policy could have on its future. Situated just about 100 miles west of Taiwan is China, a country that claims the small Asian island as its own and has made threats of invasion in the past. Given Taiwan’s unique international status, where it is not officially recognized as a sovereign nation by most countries and lacks the ability to engage in traditional diplomacy, its longstanding partnership with the United States holds significant importance for the island.
### Security Concerns in Taiwan
One of the primary areas of interest for Taiwan in the U.S. election is the issue of security guarantees. While the United States follows a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan, it is obligated by American laws to assist the island in its self-defense. In recent years, Washington has ramped up the sale of U.S. weapons systems to Taipei, signaling its commitment to Taiwan’s security.
As tensions escalate over the question of whether the U.S. should come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion, skepticism is growing in Taiwan regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a security partner. A survey conducted by the Brookings Institution in Taiwan revealed that only about a quarter of the 1,500 adults polled considered the U.S. a trustworthy ally. However, approximately 55% believed that the U.S. would intervene to aid Taiwan in case of a conflict, regardless of who occupies the White House.
The uncertainty and anxiety in Taiwan are palpable as Beijing continues its efforts to intimidate the island. Professor Ping-Kuei Chen, an expert in diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei, underscores the importance for Taiwan of a clear commitment from the U.S. when it comes to defending the island. Taiwanese citizens are keen to know whether the U.S. would go beyond symbolic gestures and provide direct military support in the event of a crisis.
### Semiconductor Industry in Taiwan
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of its economy, is closely watching the U.S. election for potential implications on its future. Home to major technological manufacturing and semiconductor companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), Taiwan plays a vital role in the global supply chain for semiconductor chips. The island is expected to produce nearly $150 billion worth of semiconductor chips this year, essential for various industries including smartphones and defense systems.
The next U.S. president’s approach to managing the technological rivalry with China is of critical importance to Taiwan’s semiconductor sector. The U.S. has imposed stringent export controls on semiconductors, affecting Taiwanese chipmakers. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has initiated subsidies for new semiconductor facilities in the country, including TSMC’s plans to establish three new factories in Arizona.
The decision to expand operations in the U.S. has sparked controversy in Taiwan, with some speculating that the move aims to diminish Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor manufacturing. However, there is no evidence to support such claims. Former President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting retaliatory measures against Taiwan’s semiconductor industry have raised concerns among Taiwanese policymakers and industry leaders.
### Political Dynamics and Taiwan’s Relations with the U.S.
The political landscape in Taiwan is closely intertwined with the U.S. election, as the island seeks a stable and reliable partner in Washington. In 2016, support for the U.S. Republican Party surged in Taiwan after President Trump engaged in direct communication with then-President Tsai Ying-wen, breaking longstanding diplomatic norms. However, recent statements from the Trump campaign regarding Taiwan’s defense contributions have strained this relationship.
President Trump’s remarks implying that Taiwan should pay for U.S. defense support have drawn criticism from Taiwanese officials and experts. Despite Taiwan’s significant investments in U.S.-made arms, the suggestion that the island should shoulder additional financial burdens for defense has raised concerns in Taiwan.
A recent survey conducted prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race revealed a shift in Taiwanese preferences, with more respondents expressing support for Biden over Trump. However, a significant portion of participants indicated ambivalence towards both parties’ policies concerning Taiwan. The uncertainty surrounding the future U.S. administration’s stance on Taiwan has left many Taiwanese citizens weighing their options.
### Conclusion
As Taiwan closely follows the U.S. election, the island grapples with complex geopolitical challenges and seeks clarity on crucial issues such as security guarantees, semiconductor industry dynamics, and diplomatic relations with the United States. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly shape Taiwan’s future trajectory and influence its strategic decisions in the face of growing regional tensions.
