As La Niña strengthens in the tropical Pacific, forecasters are sounding the alarm about the potential for California to slip back into drought conditions in the coming months. La Niña is the drier phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation system (ENSO), a major influencer of climate and weather patterns worldwide. While its counterpart, El Niño, brought record-warm global temperatures and a wet winter to California earlier this year, La Niña could reverse those conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 66% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, with a 74% chance of it persisting through the winter. This shift in climate patterns could have significant implications, particularly in Southern California, where the return of dry conditions is a looming threat.
### La Niña’s Impact on California
La Niña was last in effect from 2020 to 2023, coinciding with California’s driest three years on record. During this period, the state faced water shortages, strict water restrictions, and devastating wildfires due to the arid conditions. Recent months have shown signs of worsening dryness, exacerbated by soaring temperatures that have evaporated moisture from the air and land.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, approximately 17% of California is now classified as abnormally dry, a significant increase from just over 1% three months ago. While La Niña’s arrival is not a guarantee of drought, it does increase the likelihood of dry conditions in the region, particularly in Southern California.
### Delayed Onset of La Niña
Despite earlier projections, the onset of La Niña has been delayed, with current conditions showing neutrality in the ENSO system. Tom DiLiberto, an ENSO forecaster with NOAA, explains that the delay may be attributed to the slow cooling of the planet’s oceans, which are crucial for the development of La Niña. However, signs of La Niña’s emergence are still present, indicating a gradual shift towards the drier climate pattern.
While La Niña typically brings dry conditions to Southern California, its impact is less clear in other parts of the state. The Bay Area and northern regions may experience varying effects, while the Pacific Northwest could see wetter-than-average conditions. Nathan Lenssen, a climate scientist, emphasizes the need for preparedness in the face of potential drought and extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent due to human-induced climate change.
### Climate Outlook and Potential Impacts
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures across most of the continental United States through at least November, with the highest probabilities in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West Coast and Pacific Northwest show equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding La Niña’s influence.
The delayed onset of La Niña may impact global temperatures, with a 77% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record. Below-normal precipitation is expected in the Southwest, Southern California, and parts of the Great Plains through November, highlighting the continued dry conditions that could persist despite La Niña’s timing.
### Future Implications and Preparedness
As La Niña gains strength, the potential for drought in Southern California and the Southwest looms large. Brad Pugh of the Climate Prediction Center emphasizes the need for readiness in the face of drier-than-normal conditions that could persist through the winter months. While the exact strength of La Niña remains uncertain, preparations for potential drought and extreme weather events are essential to mitigate their impacts.
In conclusion, the strengthening of La Niña poses a significant threat to California’s water resources and climate patterns. As forecasters monitor its development, it is crucial for residents and policymakers to prepare for the possibility of drought and extreme weather events in the months ahead. By staying informed and taking proactive measures, California can better adapt to the changing climate conditions driven by La Niña.
